About

The objective of this ex-post evaluation is to carry out an evidence-based analysis of the economic, social, environmental and human rights impact of CETA after six years of provisional application. The assessment relies on economic modelling, literature review, statistical data analysis and continuous and wide-ranging stakeholder consultations.

Related to the impact areas, the analysis consists of four sustainability pillars: economic, social, environmental and the one related to human rights. Additionally, through case studies, the evaluation provides an in-depth analysis on specific issues.

The ex-post evaluation will only analyse the parts of the agreement which are already in force, which is the large majority of chapters. The parts on investment protection, investment market access for portfolio investment and the investment Court System are not yet applied as the ratification in ten Member States is outstanding. For exact parts which are not yet enforced, please see here.

Sustainability pillars

The methodology of this ex-post evaluation consists of two equally important elements: the in-depth analysis of sustainability effects; and consultations with key stakeholders. The focus of each of the four sustainability pillars is shortly highlighted below, and also our approach on case studies is outlined. For the stakeholder consultation please see here.

Economic impact

The economic impact analysis provides the starting point for the evaluation because many of the effects observed in other pillars follow from the economic effects. A broad range of economic variables will be analysed using a multi-pronged approach. We look, for example, at tariff and non-tariff obstacles, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows, regulatory aspects, public procurement, customs, and impact on Least Developed Countries (LDCs), EU Outermost Regions and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

Social impact

The social impact analysis focuses on an analysis of different types of social effects: e.g. on employment, labour standards, working conditions, welfare, poverty, vulnerable consumer groups, women, vulnerable groups in the society, public policies and services and uptake of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices.

Environmental impact

The environmental impact analysis, looks at the effects of the agreement on: the interaction with Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs), the Paris Agreement and Global Biodiversity Framework, air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, water quality and resources, land use, soil quality, waste prevention and waste management, marine litter, biodiversity, ecosystems services and protected areas.

Human rights impact

The human rights analysis look at the impact of the agreement on human rights as set out in the international and regional human rights treaties. It takes into account pre-existing legal situation in the EU and Canada, pre-existing conditions of stress of vulnerability.

Case Studies

In addition to the sustainability pillar analyses, five case studies are carried out, focusing on the sustainability impact arising from the agreement. They focus - mainly in a qualitative manner - on more narrow, illustrative, issues that are relevant from a sustainability angle.

Concretely, the case studies will cover:

Trade in key agricultural goods including SPS and IP (GI) protection aspects
Technical Barriers to Trade and Conformity Assessment and regulatory cooperation
Critical raw materials with a focus on critical minerals
Environmental goods and services
Public procurement

Case studies

Our Team

This study is carried out by a multidisciplinary team of experts led by Trade Impact B.V., a consultancy company based in the Netherlands, and other partners and subcontractors: IEEP and Cambridge Econometrics.